Where people leaving the biggest US counties go
Most households leaving the country’s largest counties do not go far. In 9 of the ten biggest counties more returns left than arrived in 2022–23, and in every case the top destination was a neighboring county.
The ten counties below file the most tax returns in the country. Together they hold several big cities, from Los Angeles and Chicago to Houston and Dallas, and they are where most of the conversation about people leaving big cities is focused. The IRS files make it possible to check where those departing households actually went.
| County | Net returns | Top three destinations (returns) | Left the state | Median miles |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles County, CA | −40,453 | Orange County (19,802); San Bernardino County (18,325); Riverside County (11,161) | 47% | 279 |
| Cook County, IL | −14,346 | DuPage County (11,143); Will County (6,972); Lake County (6,447) | 62% | 166 |
| Maricopa County, AZ | +5,261 | Pinal County (10,805); Pima County (2,720); Yavapai County (2,297) | 74% | 639 |
| Harris County, TX | −7,225 | Fort Bend County (14,433); Montgomery County (12,733); Brazoria County (5,157) | 34% | 101 |
| San Diego County, CA | −5,385 | Riverside County (6,563); Los Angeles County (4,999); Orange County (3,258) | 64% | 620 |
| Orange County, CA | −12,084 | Los Angeles County (16,006); Riverside County (8,367); San Diego County (4,006) | 43% | 122 |
| Miami-Dade County, FL | −21,399 | Broward County (17,471); Palm Beach County (2,734); Lee County (2,131) | 41% | 195 |
| Kings County, NY | −11,517 | Queens County (12,183); New York County (7,421); Richmond County (4,523) | 52% | 33 |
| Queens County, NY | −17,613 | Nassau County (10,413); Kings County (8,138); New York County (4,241) | 46% | 35 |
| Dallas County, TX | −9,194 | Tarrant County (14,066); Collin County (12,881); Denton County (9,837) | 28% | 36 |
The table counts returns, so a family of four is one entry. “Left the state” is the share of departing returns that went to another state, and the median distance is measured on the listed flows of 20 returns or more.
The first move is usually next door
Los Angeles County, California, lost 40,453 more returns than it gained, the largest net loss in the country. The three biggest destinations for Los Angeles were all in Southern California: Orange, San Bernardino and Riverside Counties took 30% of everyone who left. The same pattern holds in Chicago, where DuPage, Will and Lake Counties lead the list, and in Dallas, where Tarrant County, Collin County and Denton County received 43% of departures.
New York City is the extreme case. The top three destinations for returns leaving Brooklyn were other boroughs, and the median listed departure from Kings County covered only 33 miles. Moving from Brooklyn to Queens counts as a county-to-county move in this data, even though it does not leave the city.
Miami-Dade is the most concentrated case among the large counties. Broward County alone took 17,471 returns, 27% of all departures, while the next destination, Palm Beach County, took 2,734.
Who leaves the state
The share that crosses a state line varies widely. Only 28% of the returns leaving Dallas County went to another state, the lowest share in the group. At the other end, 74% of departures from Maricopa County went out of state. Cook County sends 62% of its leavers across a state line, and among the listed flows Indiana is the most common out-of-state destination, followed by California, Florida and Texas.
Net loss is not the same as an exodus
Every county in the table also takes in large numbers of new arrivals. Los Angeles received 122,437 returns in 2022–23, more than most counties file in total. The net figure is the small difference between two very large streams, and it can change sign with a modest shift in either one. Maricopa, the one county in the group with a net gain in returns, is a reminder that size alone does not settle the direction.
Harris County, home of Houston, shows how the two parts can point in different directions. Harris received 44,044 returns from other states and sent 35,089 to them, a gain, while losing more to its own suburbs than it took back. On its profile this shows up as a split between the two maps: thick orange lines to Fort Bend and Montgomery Counties on the near map, more blue than orange on the far one.
The same neighbors in both directions
In 7 of the ten counties, the top destination is also the top source of new arrivals. Los Angeles and Orange County are each other’s largest partner, as are Harris and Fort Bend, Miami-Dade and Broward, and Cook and DuPage. The exchange runs both ways; what differs is the balance. Los Angeles sent 19,802 returns to Orange County and received 16,006 from it.
Because these counties are so large, the lists cover nearly everything. Between 89% and 96% of each county’s departures within the United States went to a county that received 20 or more of its returns, so the destinations in the table are close to a complete account.
Where to look next
Each county name in the table links to a full profile with the complete list of destinations, the states involved and four years of totals. For a county outside this group, the county tracer draws the same map for any of 2,748 counties. The note on how far people move looks at distance across all counties, and the note on state-to-state moves adds up the long-distance part of the picture.
Two cautions apply to every row. The lists include only flows of 20 or more returns, which in a county this large leaves out very little; and the counts cover tax filers only, so households that do not file a return are not in them.
Sources
IRS Statistics of Income, SOI Tax Stats – Migration Data, county-to-county and state-to-state files, 2019–20 to 2022–23 (irs.gov). County locations: US Census Bureau, 2023 Gazetteer Files. Calculations by countymoves; definitions in How to read the data.