How county migration changed from 2019–20 to 2022–23
Between the 2019–20 and 2022–23 filing pairs, 46 of the 285 counties with at least 40 listed origin and 40 listed destination counties changed direction, 20 of them from a net loss to a net gain. The large central cities that lost returns fastest in the earlier years lost far fewer by 2022–23, while many of the fastest-growing counties grew more slowly.
The site holds four filing pairs: 2019–20, 2020–21, 2021–22 and 2022–23. Each pair compares the addresses on returns filed in two consecutive years, so the first ends with returns filed in 2020 and the last with returns filed in 2023. Comparing them shows how the balance of moving shifted county by county. Two cautions come first. For 2022–23 the IRS changed its matching method, which raises the number of returns in that year by roughly 5%; and Connecticut’s counties are missing from two of the four years, so its regions are left out of every comparison here.
States
At the state level, Florida’s net gain from other states peaked in 2020–21 at 128,228 returns and fell to 55,349 in 2022–23. New York’s net loss narrowed from 142,109 returns to 71,987, and California’s from 158,220 to 100,397. The table gives the rate per 1,000 returns for a selection of states with large flows.
| State | 2019–20 | 2020–21 | 2021–22 | 2022–23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | +9.6 | +14.7 | +13.8 | +5.9 |
| Texas | +6.0 | +7.7 | +7.9 | +4.9 |
| South Carolina | +13.3 | +15.6 | +16.4 | +14.0 |
| North Carolina | +9.4 | +10.4 | +10.7 | +9.3 |
| Tennessee | +8.6 | +11.7 | +11.4 | +8.6 |
| Arizona | +16.3 | +12.0 | +7.8 | +6.0 |
| California | −7.7 | −10.1 | −8.9 | −6.2 |
| New York | −15.9 | −17.2 | −12.9 | −8.4 |
| Illinois | −10.0 | −10.6 | −8.8 | −5.4 |
The direction stayed the same in all of these states over the four years; what changed was the size. The South Carolina and North Carolina rates held up better than Florida’s, which is why South Carolina leads the 2022–23 state ranking.
Counties that changed the most
Among those counties with all four years, the largest swings were in the cores of big metro areas. New York County, New York, which is Manhattan, went from −59.7 per 1,000 in 2019–20 to +3.9 in 2022–23. San Francisco moved from −57.3 to −2.3, and the District of Columbia from −26.8 to +4.5.
| County | 2019–20 | 2022–23 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York County, NY | −59.7 | +3.9 | +63.6 |
| San Francisco County, CA | −57.3 | −2.3 | +55.0 |
| Arlington County, VA | −39.5 | +2.7 | +42.2 |
| District of Columbia | −26.8 | +4.5 | +31.3 |
| Suffolk County, MA | −38.7 | −11.9 | +26.8 |
| Midland County, TX | −14.6 | +11.5 | +26.1 |
| City of Alexandria, VA | −19.9 | +3.4 | +23.3 |
| Butte County, CA | −18.8 | +3.5 | +22.3 |
The opposite movement shows up in counties that had been gaining fast. Several Florida counties on the Gulf coast still gained in 2022–23, but by much less than four years earlier, and a few counties elsewhere slipped from a gain into a small loss.
| County | 2019–20 | 2022–23 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte County, FL | +49.9 | +21.7 | −28.2 |
| Barnstable County, MA | +22.1 | −2.8 | −24.9 |
| Sarasota County, FL | +32.4 | +8.7 | −23.7 |
| St. Johns County, FL | +56.0 | +32.7 | −23.3 |
| Lee County, FL | +29.3 | +6.2 | −23.1 |
| Williamson County, TN | +25.9 | +3.6 | −22.3 |
| Collier County, FL | +25.4 | +3.9 | −21.5 |
| Deschutes County, OR | +33.7 | +13.3 | −20.4 |
The biggest counties, year by year
Among the largest counties the movement is steady rather than sudden. Los Angeles County’s rate went from −14.3 to −17.6, −12.8 and −9.9 over the four pairs, and Cook County’s from −15.7 to −19.9, −13.9 and −6.7. In both, the steepest loss came in 2020–21 and each later pair was smaller. Kings County, which is Brooklyn, followed the same path from −33.2 in 2020–21 to −10.7.
Maricopa County moved the other way: still gaining, but at +2.9 per 1,000 in 2022–23 after +13.4 four years earlier. Of the 280 counties in this group with all four years, 101 gained in every one and 120 lost in every one, so most counties kept their direction even as the size of the balance changed.
Reading the change column
The change in the tables is the difference between two rates, each per 1,000 returns filed in the county. A county moving from minus 20 to minus 5 has improved by 15 points without gaining anyone on balance. The method change for 2022–23 adds matched returns to arrivals and departures alike, so its effect on a net rate should be much smaller than its effect on the gross counts; the IRS does not publish a correction, and the site applies none.
The District of Columbia illustrates both points. The District lost returns on net in 2019–20, 2020–21 and 2021–22, by −26.8, −28.5 and −7.3 per 1,000, and then gained in 2022–23. Arlington County in Virginia, across the river, shows the same turn, and the neighboring City of Alexandria turned a year earlier; all three are among the largest increases in the table above.
The overall balance
Despite these swings, the number of these counties with a net gain barely moved: 134 in 2019–20, 130 in 2020–21, 127 in 2021–22 and 130 in 2022–23. The changes happened inside the list: some big cities moved toward balance while some fast-growing counties slowed.
The files record addresses, not reasons. They show where filers went and how the balance shifted from one filing pair to the next; they cannot show why a household moved, and these tables should be read as a description rather than as evidence for any particular cause.
Checking a county
Every county profile carries a four-year chart with arrivals above the line and departures below it, along with the rate for each year. State pages carry the same chart for moves between states. The state overview has all 51 rates for 2022–23 on one map.
Sources
IRS Statistics of Income, SOI Tax Stats – Migration Data, county-to-county and state-to-state files, 2019–20 to 2022–23 (irs.gov). County locations: US Census Bureau, 2023 Gazetteer Files. Calculations by countymoves; definitions in How to read the data.